Monday, 20 February 2012

Correlation and causation

Correlation and causation for Grade XI of AP secondary school education board:
To understand Correlation and causation let’s have a glance at the following example related to Correlation and causation.
• When ice cream sales increase, the rate of drowning deaths increases too in accordance with increase in the sales of ice creams.
Conclusion: ice cream consumption causes drowning deaths.
Explanation: ice cream sales increases during the summer time not in cold and in summer time people are also involved in the water related activities like swimming etc. Thus drowning deaths happen due to more exposure to water based activities not because of ice cream. Thus the conclusion is false.
Linear Correlation versus causation:
There is a great confusion between Correlation and causation. It can be specified easily. An event can cause another event like smoking causes lung cancer and it can be correlated with another factor like smoking is also co related with alcoholism. If the occurrence of the event causes another event then definitely they are co related but it’s not necessary that if occurrence of two things is together one will always cause the other. Basically it’s difficult to establish causality between two correlated events. Like in the above example smoking not only correlates with lung cancer but it causes lung cancer.
Most effective method of defining causality is the controlled study in which two groups of people are given two different sets of experiences (remind that these groups of people chosen are same in most of the ways) like one group decides to watch opera soaps and other watches video shows and then the outcome of these groups is compared. If outcomes of both the groups are different then it is believed that the different experiences of the groups would have caused different outcomes.

In upcoming posts we will discuss about Permutations and combinations and Angles of triangles and polygons. Visit our website for information on What is Standard Deviation

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